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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."